Get Out of Ebbing, Missouri When the Shape of Your Darkest Hour is a Phantom Lady Bird

(Update: I got 7 of 11 correct!)

You have come to the right place for my 9th annual Oscars predictions!

I’m not that good at it, but I’m consistent. In that I make predictions. If you copy any of these, just know…I’m sorry.

How have I done in recent years?

I typically only predict what I consider to be the major categories.

So coming March 4th, the 90th Annual Academy Awards will be awarded and my predictions will come true. Believe it.

Interestingly (okay not really), in recent years, I’ve made it a point to see as many of the movies nominated for Best Picture before the ceremony as possible. And I typically get around to watching all of the Best Picture nominees at some point. I was curious how well I was doing on that front, so I did some research (gasp!). I know, I know, pulling things out of thin air is more my speed, but this time I let the statistics be the story. #NotFakeNews

For the five years between 2012-2016, I’ve seen all but one of the Best Picture nominations (42/43 movies). And since the Academy expanded the number of nominations from five to more in 2009 (often nine), I have yet to see five of the nominations (67/72). Lastly, since 2000, I missed a mere 10 Best Picture nominations in total (107/117). So. Not bad. I guess.


Best Picture – I’ve seen 6 of 9 of these so far. This comes down to The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. I liked The Shape of Water well enough, and I struggled a bit with Three Billboards. Yet I kinda, sorta think Three Billboards will actually win. The Post was the best, and Dunkirk is amazing, but more as a sound/visual experience than a Best Picture.
  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water (Winner!)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Actress in a Leading Role – Frances is mean and angry and going to win Oscar gold!
  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Actor in a Leading Role – No contest!
  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (My pick)
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role – Lady Bird gets lots of acting buzz, so this will be the consolation because Three Billboards will win two acting awards.
  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya (Winner!)
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (My pick)
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Angry and racist is the winning combination!
  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Director – Nolan may win and would deserve to, but I think del Toro wins!
  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro (My pick)
Adapted Screenplay – I want Mudbound to win. It won’t.
  • Call Me by Your Name (My pick)
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound
Original Screenplay – Probably will coincide with Best Picture.
  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out (Winner!)
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Animated Feature Film – The only one I’ve seen is The Boss Baby, and it is brutal (aka not good)! I think Pixar notches another win!
  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco (My pick)
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent
Cinematography – Blade Runner would deserve a win here, and it’s likely the only chance for Mudbound to get a win, but The Shape of Water IS going to win some of the 13 categories it was nominated for.
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Winner!)
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water (My pick)
Best Foreign Language Film – ¡Viva Chile! ¡Viva women!
  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (My pick)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

La La Lions from Hell, and Other Hidden Fences by the Sea

(Update: I got 7 of 11 correct!)

I relentlessly present with you my 8th annual Oscar predictions!

As always, I suck at this so if you copy me in any way, shape or form, you will do no better than the average monkey. Average monkeys are smart on occasion, especially in how they acquire and fling feces, so don’t fret too much.

For evidence of my suckage, see my results over the last 3 years:

  • 2016: 4 (correct)/11
  • 2015: 8/11
  • 2014: 10/11

I only predict 11 categories (of the 24 total), or what I consider the major categories.

So coming on February 26th, we have the 89th Annual Academy Awards!

You’ll be pleased to learn, I’ve seen all 88 of the previous Best Picture winners…so might as well make my way through this year’s nominees.

So far, I’ve seen 5 of 9.


Best Picture – Up for 14 nominations (tied for most all-time with Titanic and All About Eve), it’s not a stretch to say La La Land is the favorite. Plus it’s filthy with music and dancing and hope and heartbreak.

Continue reading “La La Lions from Hell, and Other Hidden Fences by the Sea”

Spotlight on the Short, Mad Martian Spies in Brooklyn

Epilogue: I picked 4 out of 11 correct! 64% wrong! Fantastic and amazing results! 

It is time.

The moment you’ve been waiting for!

My Oscar picks. The best 8.8 seconds of your day.

I know this is a celebratory moment of epic proportions, but calm down. Please.

Hold still long enough to read the rest of the this post.

It’s just the 88th Annual Academy Awards ceremony hosted by Chris Rock.

Last year I picked 8 of 11 correctly. (I don’t do them all…that’s too much work!)


Best Picture – When they are big and short, we like the odds.

  • The Big Short (My pick)
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight (Winner)


Best Actress in a Leading Role – Let’s see what Brie is doing in that room.

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room (My pick) (Winner)
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn


Best Actor in a Leading Role – Matt shined as a Martian, but Leo was the king of the wilderness.

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (My pick) (Winner)
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl


Best Actress in a Supporting Role – Danish girls deserve the spotlight.

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (My pick) (Winner)
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs


Best Actor in a Supporting Role – The Italian Stallion wins for his second acting nomination for the seminal role of Rocky.

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (Winner)
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed (My pick)


Best Director – Maybe Alejandro could win two years in a row…but actually there’s something Mad about the Oscar race this year.

  • Adam McKay, The Big Short
  • George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (My pick)
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, The Revenant (Winner)
  • Lenny Abrahamson, Room
  • Tom McCarthy, Spotlight


Adapted Screenplay – I only read one of these books, so that has to win, right? Right.

  • The Big Short (Winner)
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian (My pick)
  • Room


Original Screenplay – Rapper’s paradise.

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight (Winner)
  • Straight Outta Compton (My pick)


Best Animated Feature Film – Pixar dominates! Never doubt!

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy and the World
  • Inside Out (My pick) (Winner)
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There


Cinematography – Hard to say, but I think there is some Mad Max fury to be had.

  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max: Fury Road (My pick)
  • The Revenant (Winner)
  • Sicario


Best Foreign Language Film – I can only embrace the inevitable pressure of failure.

  • Embrace of the Serpent (My pick)
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul (Winner)
  • Theeb
  • A War
Things will only escalate from here.
Feel free to witness picks from previous years here.

The Theory of Imitating Birdmen in the Hood

Epilogue: I picked 8 out of 11 correct! 73%! My theories are sound and my game is grand.

Another year, another crop of Oscar predictions. Can you whip it?

Last year I went bananas (B-A-N-A-N-A-S), and picked 10 out of 11 correctly. Ten, I say!

That’s unbeatable in the history of ever, so this year my goal is to accidently get at least four right.

I’m not that impressed with this year’s yield of movies. YAWN.

Boyhood? No. The Grand Budapest Hotel? Later. Foxcather? Ugh.


Best Picture – Ho hum, nothing special. So I’m voting for the movie I want to win, not the one I think will win.

  • Whiplash
  • Birdman (Actual Winner)
  • Boyhood
  • American Sniper
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Selma
  • The Imitation Game (My pick)


Best Actor in a Leading Role – Batman wins!

  • Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
  • Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
  • Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
  • Michael Keaton (Birdman) (My pick)
  • Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) (Actual Winner)


Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Whip it. Whip it good!

  • Robert Duvall (The Judge)
  • Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
  • Edward Norton (Birdman)
  • Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
  • J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) (Winner!)


Best Actress in a Leading Role – Didn’t see Still Alice, but I got a feeling.

  • Morion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
  • Felicty Jones (The Theory of Everything)
  • Julianne Moore (Still Alice) (Winner!)
  • Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
  • Reese Witherspoon (Wild)


Best Actress in a Supporting Role – No clue, so…Patricia wins because her role took YEARS to perform.

  • Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) (Winner!)
  • Laura Dern (Wild)
  • Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
  • Emma Stone (Birdman)
  • Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)


Adapted Screenplay – Maybe American Sniper has a chance, but not my pick!

  • American Sniper
  • The Imitation Game (Winner!)
  • Inherent Vice
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash


Original Screenplay – I can’t imagine any of the other choices winning. Lock.

  • Birdman (Winner!)
  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Nightcrawler


Best Animated Feature Film – Didn’t see any of these, so I’m going with Disney because they will crush your dreams if you don’t vote for them.

  • Big Hero 6 (Winner!)
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya


Best Director – Same theory as Original Screenplay.

  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) (Winner!)
  • Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
  • Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
  • Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
  • Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)


Cinematography – Crashing in the vast ocean and being eaten by sharks always wins. Or at least it should.

  • Birdman (Actual Winner)
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ida
  • Mr. Turner
  • Unbroken (My pick)


Best Foreign Language Film – Eeny, meeny, miny, moe…

  • Ida (Winner!)
  • Leviathan
  • Tangerines
  • Timbuktu
  • Wild Tales


Keep that whip cracking!


The Gravity of 86 Years of Oscars

Epilogue: I picked 10 out of 11 correct! 91%! Like a wolf in zero gravity, I really hustled this year.

Every year, like clockwork, I pick the winners of select Oscar categories. My best is 6 correct out of 11. I’m barely above average. This Academy Award ceremony, the 86th of its kind, is hosted by Ellen DeGeneres.

This year, I’m going all in. Total domination!

Watch out!

Best Picture – I saw four five of these movies, and may see a couple more before the show on Sunday, March 2nd. So my prediction is nothing if not 100% accurate.

  • 12 Years a Slave (Winner!)
  • Gravity
  • American Hustle
  • Philomenia
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor in a Leading Role – Haven’t seen it, but I’ll give it to him for True Detective.

  • Christian Bale (American Hustle)
  • Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
  • Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) (Winner!)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Lock. It took less than 30 seconds and a trip to Mars to make this choice.

  • Bardhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
  • Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
  • Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
  • Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
  • Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) (Winner!)

Best Actress in a Leading Role – If you go crazy and talk to yourself (like me), you win!

  • Amy Adams (American Hustle)
  • Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) (Winner!)
  • Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
  • Judi Dench (Philomena)
  • Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role – The only choice really.

  • Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
  • Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) (Winner!)
  • Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
  • June Squibb (Nebraska)

Adapted Screenplay – Matching Best Picture, I is.

  • Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
  • Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
  • Philomenia (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope)
  • 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) (Winner!)
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Original Screenplay – This will win something!

  • American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell) (Winner!)
  • Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
  • Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack)
  • Her (Spike Jonze) (Actual Winner)
  • Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Best Animated Feature Film – I’m surprised Monsters University didn’t get nominated, so I have the opposite of a warm and fuzzy feeling about this one.

  • The Croods
  • Despicable Me 2
  • Ernest & Celestine
  • Frozen (Winner!)
  • The Wind Rises

Best Director – Tough one. But Gravity seems harder to make.

  • American Hustle (David O. Russell)
  • Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón) (Winner!)
  • Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
  • 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Cinematography – I can’t imagine how any other movie could win this award.

  • The Grandmaster
  • Gravity (Winner!)
  • Inside Llewyn David
  • Nebraska
  • Prisoners

Best Foreign Language Film – Let’s draw straws…and select Italy!

  • The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
  • The Great Beauty (Italy) (Winner!)
  • The Hunt (Denmark)
  • The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
  • Omar (Palestine)

Keep your Oscar shiny.

Is That An Oscar In Your Pants…

I got 6 out of 11 picks correct! Better than below average!

…or are you just ready for Sunday, February 24th? Featuring the 85th Annual Academy Awards ceremony hosted by Seth MacFarlane, of course! Expect nothing. Give everything.

I’m here to boldly predict the winners. In less than half the categories. That’s all I can handle.

Yet, if I prove 100% accurate, I deserve my statue in the US Capitol Building. Well, at least a burning effigy in the parking lot.

Best Picture – I saw five of these movies. Therefore, I know the result.

  • Amour
  • Argo (Actual Winner)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Django Unchained
  • Les Misérables
  • Life of Pi
  • Lincoln (Winner!)
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Zero Dark Thirty


Best Actor in a Leading Role – Mr. President, take a bow.

  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Denzel Washington (Flight)
  • Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
  • Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) (Winner!)


Best Actor in a Supporting Role – The irascible one shall prevail.

  • Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) (Winner!)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  • Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Alan Arkin (Argo)
  • Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) (Actual Winner)


Best Actress in a Leading Role – Not the Hunger Games! Or Lincoln for a change!

  • Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
  • Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
  • Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) (Winner!)
  • Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)


Best Actress in a Supporting Role – I dreamed a dream. And it was all about Anne Hathaway.

  • Amy Adams (The Master)
  • Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
  • Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) (Winner!)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln)


Adapted Screenplay – ‘Argo f*** yourself!’ Argo wins because Ben Affeck doesn’t!

  • Argo (Chris Terrio) (Winner!)
  • Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
  • Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
  • Life of Pi (David Magee)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin)


Original Screenplay – Something tells me I don’t know what I’m doing, so let me pick…

  • Amour (Michael Haneke) (Winner!)
  • Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
  • Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)
  • Flight (John Gatins)
  • Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) (Actual Winner)

Best Animated Feature Film – Going against my programming, sorry Pixar.

  • Brave (Actual Winner)
  • Wreck-It Ralph (Winner!)
  • The Pirates! Band of Misfits
  • ParaNorman
  • Frankenweenie


Best Director – Four score and seven years ago…Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated.

  • Michael Haneke (Amour)
  • David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) (Winner!)
  • Ang Lee (Life of Pi) (Actual Winner)
  • Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Cinematogaphy – Tiger blood and being lost at sea – and no Charlie Sheen? Winning!

  • Anna Karenina
  • Skyfall
  • Lincoln
  • Life of Pi (Winner!)
  • Django Unchained

Best Foreign Language Film – When you’re nominated for Best Picture and don’t win, you win this.

  • Amour (Austria) (Winner!)
  • War Witch (Canada)
  • A Royal Affair (Denmark)
  • No (Chile)
  • Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Stay shaken, not stirred.

Predicting the Oscar Race

Epilogue: I got 6 of 11 correct! 55%!

It’s almost time. Get ready. Sunday is the 84th Annual Academy Awards ceremony hosted for the 100th time by Billy Crystal.

I’m here to boldly predict the winners and sneer at the losers. If my boldness proves correct, what do I win? I hope it’s a puppy.

Best Picture – I saw four of these movies. That makes me an expert.

  • The Artist (Winner)
  • The Descendants
  • Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Moneyball
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

Best Actor in a Leading Role – It’s Clooney’s year. I just know it!

  • Demián Bichir (A Better Life)
  • George Clooney (The Descendants) (Winner)
  • Jean Dujardin (The Artist) (Actual Winner)
  • Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
  • Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role – If you’re old and gay, you win.

  • Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
  • Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
  • Nick Nolte (Warrior)
  • Christopher Plummer (Beginners) (Winner)
  • Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)

Best Actress in a Leading Role – Meryl gets nominated every year, only to lose to someone that was slightly better. Same this year.

  • Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
  • Viola Davis (The Help) (Winner)
  • Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
  • Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) (Actual Winner)
  • Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role – It’s a helpful year.

  • Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)
  • Jessica Chastain (The Help)
  • Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
  • Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
  • Octavia Spencer (The Help) (Winner)

Adapted Screenplay – I think people will honor Martin Scorsese’s love letter to film and he’s not winning elsewhere. Though Moneyball could win.

  • The Descendants (Actual Winner)
  • Hugo (Winner)
  • The Ides of March
  • Moneyball
  • Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Original Screenplay – Woody sighting.

  • The Artist
  • Bridesmaids
  • Margin Call
  • Midnight in Paris (Winner)
  • A Separation


Best Animated Feature Film – No Pixar, no care.

  • A Cat in Paris
  • Chico & Rita (Winner)
  • Kung Fu Panda 2
  • Puss in Boots
  • Rango (Actual Winner)

Best Director – Woody and Martin? No. If they give it to Terrence Malick for his turd sandwich, I quit.

  • Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) (Winner)
  • Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
  • Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
  • Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
  • Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)


Cinematogaphy – Probably the Tree of Life, but I’m rooting for the horse.

  • Guillaume Schiffman (The Artist)
  • Jeff Cronenweth (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
  • Robert Richardson (Hugo) (Actual Winner)
  • Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
  • Janusz Kaminski (War Horse) (Winner)


Best Foreign Language Film

  • Bullhead – Belgium
  • Footnote – Israel
  • In Darkness – Poland
  • Monsieur Lazhar – Canada
  • A Separation – Iran (Winner)

I predict I’ll get 2 out of 11 correct.


Logic Defying Predictions: 2011 Grammy Awards

Oh wait, I meant the Oscars! The Grammys are a tired, clueless and mostly pointless affair. Let’s not dwell on them.

Instead, let’s talk about the 2011 Academy Awards! I’m convinced I’ll be wrong on most of these, but let’s roll the dice.

Best Picture – I saw six of these movies. So the four I didn’t see, don’t stand a chance.

  • 127 Hours
  • Black Swan
  • The Fighter
  • Inception
  • The Kids Are All Right
  • The King’s Speech (Winner)
  • The Social Network
  • Toy Story 3
  • True Grit
  • Winter’s Bone

Best Actor – The King will win. Just don’t let him speak.

  • Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
  • Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
  • Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
  • Colin Firth (The King’s Speech) (Winner)
  • James France (127 Hours)

Best Supporting Actor – The King’s speech therapist will win.

  • Christian Bale (The Fighter)
  • John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
  • Jeremy Renner (The Town)
  • Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
  • Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) (Winner)

Best Actress – I’m sure Natalie Portman is the frontrunner, but when the kids are all right, who’s to get in their way?

  • Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right) (Winner)
  • Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
  • Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
  • Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Supporting Actress – No clue, so let’s go down swinging.

  • Amy Adams (The Fighter) (Winner)
  • Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
  • Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
  • Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
  • Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Adapted Screenplay – I figure this movie won’t win the big prize, but will get a back-handed slap win.

  • 127 Hours
  • The Social Network (Winner)
  • Toy Story 3
  • True Grit
  • Winter’s Bone

Original Screenplay – the King’s speech writer will win.

  • Another Year
  • The Fighter
  • Inception
  • The Kids Are All Right
  • The King’s Speech (Winner)

Best Animated Feature Film – Pixar. Another win. Lock.

  • How to Train Your Dragon
  • The Illusionist
  • Toy Story 3 (Winner)

Best Director – Fincher wins for Fight Club. Oh wait, wrong year.

  • Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
  • David O. Russell (The Fighter)
  • Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
  • David Fincher (The Social Network) (Winner)
  • Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

I predict I’ll get 2 out of 9 correct.


Epilogue: I did better than hoped for and got 5/9 right!

Oodles Of Ostentatious Opining On the Oscars

Today’s post is brought to you by the letter Æ.

Author’s note: Open your facial orifices with oomph for an onslaught of overwrought opinions that are completely otiose. They should oscillate just enough to cause odium. Don’t oppugn or outmuscle this orotund obstacle.

‘Tis the season for discourse on the 2010 Academy Awards. I have my opinion (obviously), and you have yours (ostensibly). Read on for some thoughts on who will win in nine of the main categories.

Best Picture – both Avatar and The Hurt Locker are front-runners, so it might make more sense to pick one of those two. But I think too much pre-buzz will convince voters to be edgy or contrary (just like when Shakespeare in Love won in 1998, say what?) and they will pick the next ‘best’ option, which is of course:

  • Avatar
  • The Blind Side
  • District 9
  • An Education
  • The Hurt Locker
  • Inglourious Basterds (Winner)
  • Precious
  • A Serious Man
  • Up
  • Up in the Air

Best Actor – I consider this pick a lock:

  • Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) (Winner)
  • George Clooney (Up in the Air)
  • Colin Firth (A Single Man)
  • Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
  • Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Best Supporting Actor – I can’t imagine how Christoph Waltz’ portrayal of the Nazi, Hans Landa, would not win in a cakewalk:

  • Matt Damon (Invictus)
  • Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
  • Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
  • Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
  • Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) (Winner)

Best Actress – maybe Sandra Bullock could win, but really, no:

  • Sandra Bullock (The Blide Side)
  • Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
  • Carey Mulligan (An Education)
  • Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
  • Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) (Winner)

Best Supporting Actress – haven’t seen the movie Precious, but this seems to be a lock by all accounts:

  • Penélope Cruz (Nine)
  • Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
  • Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
  • Mo’Nique (Precious) (Winner)

Adapted Screenplay – I figure this movie won’t win much, so one token Oscar will come here:

  • District 9 (Winner)
  • An Education
  • In the Loop
  • Precious
  • Up in the Air

Original Screenplay – since it might not win Best Picture, voters will make up for it here in this category:

  • The Hurt Locker (Winner)
  • Inglourious Basterds
  • The Messenger
  • A Serious Man
  • Up

Best Animated Feature Film – no contest:

  • Coraline
  • Fantastic Mr. Fox
  • The Princess and the Frog
  • The Secret of Kells
  • Up (Winner)

Best Director– please, the dude spent five years, invented new technology, and had to get actors to perform in ways they never dreamed of:

  • James Cameron (Avatar)
  • Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
  • Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
  • Lee Daniels (Precious)
  • Jason Reitman (Up In the Air)

I think that the Academy will spread the love this year, but Avatar will end up with the most Oscars with five total.