Get Out of Ebbing, Missouri When the Shape of Your Darkest Hour is a Phantom Lady Bird

(Update: I got 7 of 11 correct!)

You have come to the right place for my 9th annual Oscars predictions!

I’m not that good at it, but I’m consistent. In that I make predictions. If you copy any of these, just know…I’m sorry.

How have I done in recent years?

I typically only predict what I consider to be the major categories.

So coming March 4th, the 90th Annual Academy Awards will be awarded and my predictions will come true. Believe it.

Interestingly (okay not really), in recent years, I’ve made it a point to see as many of the movies nominated for Best Picture before the ceremony as possible. And I typically get around to watching all of the Best Picture nominees at some point. I was curious how well I was doing on that front, so I did some research (gasp!). I know, I know, pulling things out of thin air is more my speed, but this time I let the statistics be the story. #NotFakeNews

For the five years between 2012-2016, I’ve seen all but one of the Best Picture nominations (42/43 movies). And since the Academy expanded the number of nominations from five to more in 2009 (often nine), I have yet to see five of the nominations (67/72). Lastly, since 2000, I missed a mere 10 Best Picture nominations in total (107/117). So. Not bad. I guess.


Best Picture – I’ve seen 6 of 9 of these so far. This comes down to The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. I liked The Shape of Water well enough, and I struggled a bit with Three Billboards. Yet I kinda, sorta think Three Billboards will actually win. The Post was the best, and Dunkirk is amazing, but more as a sound/visual experience than a Best Picture.
  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water (Winner!)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Actress in a Leading Role – Frances is mean and angry and going to win Oscar gold!
  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Actor in a Leading Role – No contest!
  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (My pick)
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role – Lady Bird gets lots of acting buzz, so this will be the consolation because Three Billboards will win two acting awards.
  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya (Winner!)
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (My pick)
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Angry and racist is the winning combination!
  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Director – Nolan may win and would deserve to, but I think del Toro wins!
  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro (My pick)
Adapted Screenplay – I want Mudbound to win. It won’t.
  • Call Me by Your Name (My pick)
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound
Original Screenplay – Probably will coincide with Best Picture.
  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out (Winner!)
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (My pick)
Best Animated Feature Film – The only one I’ve seen is The Boss Baby, and it is brutal (aka not good)! I think Pixar notches another win!
  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco (My pick)
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent
Cinematography – Blade Runner would deserve a win here, and it’s likely the only chance for Mudbound to get a win, but The Shape of Water IS going to win some of the 13 categories it was nominated for.
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Winner!)
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water (My pick)
Best Foreign Language Film – ¡Viva Chile! ¡Viva women!
  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (My pick)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

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